Weather experts, along with much of Florida, including residents here in Polk County, are keeping an eye on a well-defined tropical wave that is brewing out in the Caribbean. National Hurricane Center has provided an August 2, 2024 11:00 a.m. regarding the tropical system. Here is a summary:
Currently Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is about 420 mi SE of Key West, Florida.
Location: 20.9°N 76.6°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach.
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas, the southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card sound bridge, and for the west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita beach to Aripeka.
Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area usually within 48 hours.
We will monitor if any inland watches and warnings are issued.
A turn toward the NW at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday. As of now, the storm is expected to move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night.
The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and near the Southeast US coast this weekend through Wednesday morning.
Here is the August 2, 2024 8:00 a.m. update from National Hurricane Center:
“For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Straits of Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of poorly
organized showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola,
the southeastern Bahamas, and Jamaica, as well as the adjacent
waters of the southwestern Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. The wave
is expected to move near or over Cuba throughout the day and then
emerge over the Straits of Florida tonight or Saturday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of
Mexico near the Florida Peninsula. Tropical storm watches or
warnings could be required for portions of Florida later today.
Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash
flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend,
and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.”
For your reference, here are the National Hurricane Center definitions of a tropical depression vs a tropical storm:
Topical Depression
A tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds (one-minute average) of 38 mph (33 knots) or less.
Tropical Storm
A tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds ranging from 39-73 mph (34 to 63 knots).
Yesterday, the Governor of Florida issued a state of emergency for several counties including Polk County. Here are the details: https://www.winterhavendaily.com/index.php/2024/08/01/governor-of-florida-issues-state-of-emergency-in-preparation-for-potential-landfall-of-tropical-system/
