Thursday 10/17 update:
Looking better for Florida!
This Thursday, showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain disorganized. Some slow development is possible during the next few days as the disturbance moves quickly westward to west-northwestward around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday. Strong upper-level winds should end the chances of
development by late in the weekend. It has a low (20 percent) chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a low (30 percent) chance in the next 7 days.
In the Western Caribbean Sea, showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible over the next couple of days before it moves inland over Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend. It has a low (20 percent) chance in the next 48 hours and the next 7 days.
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Tuesday 10/15 update:
This Tuesday, an area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move generally westward, and environmental conditions could become more conducive for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week. It has a low (30 percent) chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a medium (60 percent) chance in the next 7 days.
In the Western Caribbean Sea, a broad area of low pressure could develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week. It has a near zero chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a low (30 percent) chance in the next 7 days.
With that being said, no immediate threats to Florida at this time, and let’s hope it stays that way! If anything changes, we’ll update
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Original post Oct 13:
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Florida:
A tropical disturbance has a Medium (40%) chance of development over the Atlantic within the next 7 days.
TOO EARLY to determine track or intensity if something develops.
There is currently no storm formed, the shaded area is where a storm could possibly form in the next 7 days.
Residents and visitors should continue to monitor the forecast for updates.
Now is not the time to panic about this shaded orange area.
It is still TOO EARLY to tell where this one will go or how strong it will be, IF it even develops.
Focus on today, and your recovery efforts.
We will update this article as additional details come in about development.
