UPDATE
This Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
- Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of this week or this weekend while it moves generally northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system. It has a low (10 percent) chance of formation through 48 hours and a medium (40 percent) chance in the next 7 days. - Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
It has a high (80 percent) chance of formation through 48 hours and a high (90 percent) in the next 7 days.
For more information, visit Hurricanes.gov
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Original report
National Hurricane Center:
1. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. This system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of this week. Interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.
- (It is too early to know how this system will evolve or the impacts it could have along the Gulf Coast.)
2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A low-latitude tropical wave located a few hundred miles off the west coast of Africa is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter part of this week while moving slowly westward or west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.
*note- the orange is the possible development area (not a projected path)
