8pm update:
For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the progress of this system.
Formation chance through 48 hours… medium…50 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days… high…80 percent.
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ORIGINAL POST
A message from the National Hurricane Center: This Sunday, disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a very broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the next several days.
A tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. It has a low ( 10 percent) chance of formation through 48 hours and a high ( 70 percent) chance in the next 7 days.
For more information, please visit Hurricanes.gov
For the marine forecast, visit: Hurricanes.gov/marine
